On Sunday my friend Sarah and I did an open home circuit, visiting four homes between $2.5m-$4m. The itinerary would have included a few homes in the < $1m range but our ambitious plan didn’t account for 20 minutes to find parking in Cow Hollow.
All the time circling Union Street was worth it though, because that first Cow Hollow home is the one that I want to write about today. 1662 Union Street is a 3 bed 3 bath condo with two floors of living space and an expansive backyard, listed at $3,495,000.
$3.5m is an interesting price threshold to me. In the $1m-$2m range you are looking at a broad spectrum of condo location/size/quality. At the higher end of that range you will see great condos in desirable neighborhoods and some smaller single family homes in less desirable neighborhoods. In the $2m-$3m range you will see luxury condos and some larger single family homes still not in the most desirable neighborhoods, like these. Once you get to $3.5m you should be getting nearly everything – a spacious and well laid out out single family home or luxury condo with some subset of good location, great curb appeal, view, and garden/outdoor space. You’re still not at a Pacific Heights mansion, but maybe you have that home without the view, in the Inner Sunset.
I think this means that there’s a soft middle from $2.75m to $3.5m, where the majority of the buyer demand is either a step down or a step up in price. On the step down, you can get around 2,000 square feet of living space under $2.5m which is as far as most buyers would ever want to go, and on the step up you are looking for that “nearly everything” home. At least that’s my theory, and so any home listed in the high 2s and low 3s piques my interest.
Alright let’s take a look at 1662 Union Street – with more photos here:
it’s the lower two floors of the green and brown building
The main living floor is great – it has an open kitchen, dining area, and living room with no compromises and enough space – there’s no layout penalty. That floor also features two bedrooms and two bathrooms with a wonderful deck overlooking the backyard one floor below. The lower floor has the master bedroom, an office, and a terraced backyard with a deck and open space behind.
Here’s what I don’t like about it. First, it’s a condo, though there are only two units in the building. Your neighbor has the smaller unit but they also have the roof deck. Roof decks are pretty cool. Second, the backyard isn’t awe-inspiring. It’s fine and it’s big, but it doesn’t offer tremendous privacy. I saw a nicer one in a less expensive single family home last weekend, 152 Fairmount in Glenn Park.
For the estimate – I’m going to call Cow Hollow (on Union Street toward Van Ness) a 1.2 neighborhood and I give the home a 1.0 layout score. And while Redfin does not have square footage, Zillow lists it at 2,219 square feet.
Estimated sale price = ($ / square foot) * region score * neighborhood score * square footage * usable square footage score Estimated sale price = ($1000 / square foot) * 1.0 * 1.2 * 2,219 square feet * 1.0 Estimated sale price = $2,662,800
I’m also going to add a $600k premium for the backyard and 2nd floor balcony because they are both going to factor into anyone’s calculation. If you’ve been reading along, this is 50% more than I would pay for a small roof deck with great views in Russian Hill. It’s hard to compare these very different features (view vs. backyard space) but I’m comfortable with these relative scores.
Estimated sale price = $2,662,800 + outdoor space premium Estimated sale price = $2,662,800 + $600,000 Estimated sale price = $3,262,800
Now the audience participation piece – I would love to get some crowdsourced sale price estimates from anyone who has 5 minutes to look through the listing photos and throw a number into the comments. I’m not looking for a rationale necessarily, just what your gut feeling is as if this were a “guess how many marbles are in the jar” game. I’ll bring all these estimates into the sale analysis (through an average) and see how we did as a group.
P.S. The title is a reference to one of the tour stops, which reminded me of walking into a high-end boutique where the sales people offer you a drink immediately and you feel a little bad for (probably) wasting their time, that you’re just there to window shop and tie your shoes 🙂
My guess is that 1662 Union will go for a bit higher. I’m thinking ~$3,400,000.
I think the property has a pretty unique layout – I haven’t seen many backyard / balcony combinations like that, and I suspect that visitors will feel the same way. There is “unique good,” and “unique bad” when it comes to properties, and I bet that 1662 is the former.
Basically, an $800k premium for backyard + balcony + uniqueness, instead of $600k.
$2.8M
1/ My gut says it’ll go for $1250 a sq ft so around 2.75M
2/ The main impediment on this listing is they are unlikely to capture any young families, which is what drives prices up on many listings above 2.5M (both due to bidding wars as well as families have longer investment time horizons generally so willing to spend more).
$2.9M
$2.2m.
I’m thinking $3.0M. It’s nice, but seems like it wouldn’t have broad appeal.
I think the outdoor space is worth a lot, there is just a ton of it and it is very nicely done. But I think its overpriced… I’d guess its worth $3.1. $1250 / sqft and a small amount for the green space.
There is something funny with the “unfinished sqft”… maybe there is an extra 876 sqft that we can’t see online (redfin says unfinished sqft is 3095). 800 sqft would make for a big garage…
Hey Alex that’s a great question and I’m not sure (based on the home visit). Most sites say you *can’t* count a garage as either finished or unfinished space.
It could be that the den, attached to the master suite, is counted as unfinished square footage since on Redfin it’s also called a bonus room.
I’m going to ask the broker….
My instinct is when you list something for $3.5, unless it’s a distress situation, you won’t settle for below $3. My guess is someone low balls an offer to mitigate it being a condo Around ~$3.1 and they compromise on $3.2.
I think this one will sell for $3.505M which will be above list price of $3.495M. Buyers who are serious about bidding will want to win and $3.50M may not be enough so they will add another $10K to edge out anyone else who may try to round up to $3.50M. The comparable that might be close to this is one that sold on 4/27/17 at 2637 Union Street in only 22 days which means it was cash or a very fast loan closing that went 107% of list price at $3.210M but it was larger in sq feet but the winning bider will still likely overpay over list.
I’m saying $3.3m. Someone with a big dog I bet.
Location, layout, outdoor access, view, reasonable HOA – all attractive. I still feel it is overpriced. Estimating ~ $2.8M. I also agree with an earlier post – seller unlikely to close deal more than 10% below asking.
I estimate $3.4M, especially if offers are as they come, which it appears they are. This is an awkward block that will experience traffic from the busy Van Ness and Franklin thoroughfares. The front of the building is not particularly appealing and buildings on both sides are not particularly attractive, which is unlike other blocks of Union farther West where every building is uniquely attractive. This is a lot of space for a backyard on the north side and very low HOA dues. For a comparable, 1650 Broadway #602 (while technically Pacific Heights) is only three blocks south and sold for $3.725M in the LuXe building. Broadway and Union are both desirable streets, and the LuXe unit is on a higher floor with views, but it also has no backyard and has HOA dues 5x that of the Union condo. I think it would be worth about $325k more, so I would expect 1662 Union to garner a price of close to $3.4M.
*I* wouldn’t value this home at more than $3 million (or quite possibly lower), but I’d be surprised if they were offering it at $3.5 without someone willing to take it at $3.2. So that’s what I’ll guess: $3.2 million.
i think it goes slightly above asking… strong neighborhood, easy commutability. nice outdoor space. $3.55-3.6m
While I get both the location premium and views/large backyard (especially as that could uniquely appeal to some ppl that will bid up on that) … I want to include a discount on the fact that it’s a condo.
So I’ll go with an unscientific $3.12m.
Also, I polled a few friends, if you want to include that in your estimates: $3m, $3.2m, $3.5m
$3.1M
$3.4 which is >$1500/sf due to the uniqueness / size of the outdoor space that will keep a couple that doesn’t really want to move to the suburbs in the city. At this price point, people are still willing to make some compromises, but each person / couple will be overweight certain elements they are willing to pay for and the ratio of outdoor to indoor space here is special.
Last sold for $2.75 in october 2014 and case shiller says the market is up by 20% which would put it at $3.3. They probably put $100k into remodels and are hoping for a premium. Seems too high since similar sales in that range had views of the golden gate bridge, so I’d say $3.3M.
I would agree with Geoff. $3.5 feels a bit high, but someone is definitely going to pay $3.2/$3.3 for this property.
I would say 3.25
Posting for Sarah: 3.375-3.4m