One Comment

  1. Rajiv

    A few thoughts, with the caveat that I don’t know Pac Heights very well.
    – I’ve come across that BiggerPockets thread before, and it perfectly captures the maddening open-ended nature of getting cost estimates for an SF renovation. Guy asks for a ballpark range, almost just to get within an order of magnitude, and still got pushback from the responses. That said, I’ve heard $200-$400+ as the range for gut remodels, depending on the quality of finishes, and you’d have to think this one would go towards the top of the range.
    – I’ve looked at SFDBI’s cost schedule (http://sfdbi.org/cost-schedule) as an alternative benchmark, but I’m ultimately not sure how useful it is.
    – I suspect the reno budget goes even higher than 3000*400, but for a good reason: I’m guessing they can turn that 3000 sqft into more like 4000. looks like there’s height and space left to dormer the roof out for another full floor up, and these gut remodels usually find additional space by opening up the floorplan.
    – I see the logic to your renovation financing model, but my uninformed intuition is that the developers who go after this are going to be buying with cash, and so they might be comparing against a lower ROI hurdle of what they could get with alternate investments, not the price of borrowing.

    All that said, I won’t be so rigorous in my final guess. I say it settles at 2.65, developer puts ~1.5 in, markets it for 4.95 in a year and a half or so.

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