13 Comments

  1. Geoff

    1.05…you forgot to mention proximity to the Crocker Amazon playground in your analysis. They have a 2-story slide that Murphy is still afraid to go down.

  2. Matt

    I think the possibility to rent out the one bedroom for ~$2k is pretty interesting. Zillow is showing that at a ~$1.05m sale price, with 20% down, mortgage prices would be $3.8k; this means you could get a two bedroom upstairs for $1.8k + capex, which is even cheaper than the one bedroom. Even if some families wouldn’t want to do it, I bet income oriented property owners will guarantee that the price is higher than $1.05.

    At $1.3, mortgage payment becomes $4.8k, which seems about right to get ride of this arbitrage.

  3. Sasank

    $1.2

    You’ve also forgotten about Broken Record around the corner – a bar where you can get whiskey on tap. Fix the Mission buslines and you’ll have a real push of that gentrification line.

  4. grimm

    I think that neighborhood is at the beginning of the gentrification curve, and I suspect it’s at the phase where people start bidding up properties to get in to a “transitional neighborhood.” I suspect it’ll go a touch above asking, in the $1.1-1.15 range.

  5. I’m not that familiar with the SF areas, but assuming the in-law unit isn’t occupied (can rent for market right away) I’d wager 1.2 for a transitional place that has decent space.
    The in-law unit being legal is nice, but I’m not sure how much of an impact it will actually have given illegal in-laws are common. Also since the in-law is legal I believe the place actually counts as a 2-unit building with rent control even if you rent them both out to one person (not true for an illegal in-law).

  6. Rajiv

    10% premium on the in-law square footage is backwards. SF’s laws geared at protecting housing stock act as a one-way ratchet: you can often add a unit (whether by sectioning off part of a unit’s existing livable space or by adding new square footage or finishing garage/basement space) but you can never remove one. So where you try to credit this property for its flexibility, it actually takes a hit in value because it’s less flexible.

    The partial exception to this rule of thumb is that if the split between the two units is done perfectly, there’s an internal connection to the in-law unit that makes it feel like one combined space, but doesn’t run afoul of the laws that require them to be separate (kitchen, bathroom, primary/secondary egress, window facing open space, etc for each unit). But that’s a really tough needle to thread.

    I don’t know this neighborhood, that far east of Balboa Park BART, super well, but I’ll throw out a guess of 1.25.

  7. Hari

    no familiarity with the neighborhood at all, and i have no idea what it means that redfin decided to label this a “hot home” but if that has any meaning from a competitive bidding process, I’d bet it sells for $1.25m

  8. Jake V

    I would estimate about $1.2M. The remodel and size (~2000 sqft) are the biggest value-adds with this home. Comparable sales are in the 825-900 range but were not staged, marketed, or remodeled, and were considerably smaller. As with the comment above, I believe an in-law unit is a detractor from overall value because of the restricted use going forward. If it were a functioning 3/2 single-family home without an in-law, I would add another ~$50k to my estimation. This is near or at the top of the market for this neighborhood, and buyers will be conscious of that when considering the appraisal. For $1.3M you could buy in the Sunset, which is a lot closer to downtown, better schools, shops, and plenty more neighborhood amenities.

  9. Mehdi Alhassani

    I wonder if 10% premium is too generous on top of the sq footage…i think it’s inflating your sales estimate too much. Even with the flexibiltiy, if I’m paying $1.4 I would demand more.

    $1.150 is my guess.

  10. Heang

    $1,050,000 is my guess. It’s a good neighborhood but still far from Bart for my liking so don’t want to bid too high.

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